Mild, damp weather persists for now — but for how long?

OBSERVED SNOW COVER

Monday morning, January 16, 2023

As of January 16th, about 35% of the nation reported snow cover. The average depth was 4.7 inches, with excessive snowpack in higher elevations of the West boosting the national average. With the exception of the northern Plains, parts of the upper Midwest, and northern New England, wintry weather has been nearly non-existent across the eastern 2/3 of the country. To date, Chicago has officially logged a mere 4.7” of snow with the greatest single-event total being 1.7” that fell on December 15-16.

Little or no snow accumulation is expected in the Chicago area through the upcoming weekend. Beyond that period, forecast models are hinting at a potential for snow to accompany a trend toward more seasonable temperatures. This would favor climatology. Of nine winters since that of 1884-85 that produced 4.7” or less of snow through mid-January, average snowfall in the following February-March period was 14.7”. The current normal for the two-month period is 16.2”.

GFS MODEL: FORECAST SNOWFALL

Valid January 21-26

EUROPEAN MODEL: FORECAST SNOWFALL

Valid January 21-26

Above normal temps are expected to continue through the upcoming weekend, followed by a pattern shift that is forecast to evolve into one favoring sub-normal temps by late January.

EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL

Valid through January 21st

EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL

Valid January 26-31

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PRIMARILY ANOTHER RAIN PRODUCER

Area snow deficit to increase through mid January

Update on forecast for Wednesday to Thursday conditions

CHICAGO’S PRECIPITATION CHANCES

More active weather pattern in place: next weather system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday

NATION’S MID-SECTION BATHED IN UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR

Monday high temperatures

How much above normal?

FULL-DAY TEMP DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL

Milder than normal pattern persists another week before a shift to colder, more typical January weather