A rain-free weekend, but t-storms & a warmup coming

FIRST, THE WEATHER HEADLINES 8/26/2022

–We close out the final FULL WEEK of August 2022 with temps with have averaged 73.1-deg—a figure which is PRECISELY NORMAL! August 2022 is running 2.4-deg cooler than the opening 26 days of the month a year ago.

–Lake Michigan remains 9″ lower than a year ago in the weekly report out of the Army Corps of Engineers—yet it also continues 9″ above the long term (since 1918) August average lake level.  The shoreline water temp at Ohio Street Beach heading into this final weekend of August 2022 and of the three-month climatological SUMMER 2022 SEASON is 72-deg.

–WINDS DIE OFF AND SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

–Looks like a good weekend for beach going with today’s chop on Lake Michigan easing (good news for mariners Saturday)–a weekend which starts off with comfortable–even seasonable temps. But temps head toward a 90-deg high Sunday as humidities surge.

–This weekend is likely to average more than 3-deg warmer than last.

—The weekend REMAINS RAIN-FREE until Sunday afternoon or evening when more humid air and the beginning of decline temps aloft destabilize the atmosphere.  The combination produces an atmosphere in which warm, humid air here at ground level is encouraged to rise building 30-40% coverage thunderstorms in the process.

—Thunderstorm coverage reaches up to 60% Sunday night and 50 to 60% of the area Monday–another day of warm, humid weather.

–August 2022 closes at midnight next Wednesday which means not only does Sept 2022 get underway Thursday, but the 3-month METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN SEASON (Sept, Oct and Nov) gets underway.  Can you believe we’re that far along and that we’ve nearly made it through summer, 2022—a season likely to have averaged drier and slightly warmer than average when the stats are analyzed.

–Next week opens warm and humid. But a cold frontal passage and a broad area of gusty NW winds on the backside of an unusually strong late summer low pressure in Canada with a wind field extending south into Midwest is to team up with a healthy “NW” jet stream level flow to flood the Midwest with drier and ultimately cooler air which is to build in strength from Tuesday, with low 80 deg highs through Thursday and Friday when daytime highs will fall off to 74—below to normal early Sept highs closer to 70-deg. The mid and late week cooling will knock the weekly temp average more than 2-deg lower than this week’s full week average—-70.9-deg next week versus 73.1-deg this week.

–SOMETHING TO WATCH–and we see hints of it in the 8-to-14-day outlook just in from the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Our in-house work, which involves analyzing a suite of longer-range computer forecast models show temps surging above normal in the week following next. Let’s see how this potential “warm-up” verifies. The NWS GFS model is alone at the moment of developing some real late season heat—-but warmer than normal temps are a theme for the week after next off a full range of model forecasts.  And wouldn’t it be interesting if the GFS model is onto something. One thing for sure, we’re hardly done with warm weather this year–even though the latter half of next week will have a slightly (but LOVELY) autumn feel to it.

HERE THE FRIDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST

TONIGHT: Mainly clear and cooler with winds diminishing and patchy fog forming. Low 58–but local low and mid 50s cooler inland locations.

SATURDAY: Sunshine filters through developing fair-weather clouds. A little warmer–though light easterly lake breezes develop along Lake Michigan,  High 84–but mid 70s on area beaches.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, warmer. Humidities increase and south winds take hold. Low 68.

SUNDAY: Sun and mixed clouds, becoming breezy, quite warm and more humid. Scattered 30 to 40% coverage t-storms possible in the afternoon and evening. High 90.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: Cloudy spells (some mixed sun at times Monday), warm and humid. Several clusters of showers and t-storms likely–but with rain-free intervals between.  Low Sunday night 73. High Monday 86.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, breezy, seasonably warm–but noticeably less humid. High 83.

WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY. Temps cycle to cooler levels–enhanced in areas near Lake Michigan by north to northwest winds. A good deal of daytime sunshine mixed with some cottony fair weather cumulus clouds at times–and just some scattered clouds from time to time at night/ High Wednesday 77. Thursday and Friday’s high 74–but mid to upper 60s along Lake Michigan.